But Panel Still Sees Economy Slumping
The U.S. economic recession that began in March 2001 ended eight months later in November, but the economy has not returned to good health, according to the accepted arbiters of when slumps begin and end.
"Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all," the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in a statement yesterday.
In determining that the economic decline ended in November 2001, "the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity," it said. "Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began that month."
The committee concluded that the economy has been growing for the past 20 months and that any new downturn would be a separate recession.
The 2001 recession was slightly shorter than the average of the nine other U.S. downturns since World War II, and it was also among the mildest in terms of lost economic output. The 1990-91 recession also lasted for eight months.
The committee's conclusion about the most recent recession's end was in line with that of many other economists, who have noted that the broadest measure of economic activity, the gross domestic product figures produced by the Commerce Department, had shown the economy growing for the 18 months ended in March of this year.
"It is a great call," said Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics LLC in Cleveland. "It only comes about one year too late. Not one of my colleagues, for a long time, has seriously believed that the economy was still in recession. . . . This is something we needed to get behind us to ease trepidations about the recovery."
But to workers such as Bobby Peterson of Warren, Ohio, whose $25-an-hour job at a mill disappeared when it went out of business and who now works as a security guard for less than half that, any recovery seems a long way off. Recently divorced, the 49-year-old Peterson said he has had to move in with his mother.
"The economy is floundering and hasn't made up its mind which way to go. There's still a lot of plant closings, minimum wage is too low," Peterson said.
"It's been a big change for my [three] kids. We used to go to the amusement park. Now they have to wait until I've gone through the bills to see if we can go," he said.
"I definitely don't think this recession has ended, and I don't think it will end this summer. As long as we're in this war and different wars, we'll stay in recession," Peterson said.
One part of the economy that never slumped is housing. For example, yesterday the Commerce Department reported that new housing units were started last month at an annual rate of a little more than 1.8 million, among the highest monthly levels in history. To a significant degree, the housing boom has been the result of extremely low home mortgage interest rates, which have made home purchases more affordable and allowed many homeowners to lower their monthly payments by refinancing existing mortgages.
Michael Middleton, who owns a Memphis insurance agency, has seen his business double in the past year selling coverage to people buying homes. He now has 25 employees and said he makes about $200,000 a year.
"Our business is booming, but I realize that's not typical. We go into people's homes who are refinancing, and they wouldn't be doing that unless they're doing well. . . . I don't live in the most expensive neighborhood in town, but it's a little bit upper middle class, and everybody seems to be doing fine," Middleton said.
The U.S. economic recession that began in March 2001 ended eight months later in November, but the economy has not returned to good health, according to the accepted arbiters of when slumps begin and end.
"Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all," the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in a statement yesterday.
In determining that the economic decline ended in November 2001, "the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity," it said. "Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began that month."
The committee concluded that the economy has been growing for the past 20 months and that any new downturn would be a separate recession.
The 2001 recession was slightly shorter than the average of the nine other U.S. downturns since World War II, and it was also among the mildest in terms of lost economic output. The 1990-91 recession also lasted for eight months.
The committee's conclusion about the most recent recession's end was in line with that of many other economists, who have noted that the broadest measure of economic activity, the gross domestic product figures produced by the Commerce Department, had shown the economy growing for the 18 months ended in March of this year.
"It is a great call," said Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics LLC in Cleveland. "It only comes about one year too late. Not one of my colleagues, for a long time, has seriously believed that the economy was still in recession. . . . This is something we needed to get behind us to ease trepidations about the recovery."
But to workers such as Bobby Peterson of Warren, Ohio, whose $25-an-hour job at a mill disappeared when it went out of business and who now works as a security guard for less than half that, any recovery seems a long way off. Recently divorced, the 49-year-old Peterson said he has had to move in with his mother.
"The economy is floundering and hasn't made up its mind which way to go. There's still a lot of plant closings, minimum wage is too low," Peterson said.
"It's been a big change for my [three] kids. We used to go to the amusement park. Now they have to wait until I've gone through the bills to see if we can go," he said.
"I definitely don't think this recession has ended, and I don't think it will end this summer. As long as we're in this war and different wars, we'll stay in recession," Peterson said.
One part of the economy that never slumped is housing. For example, yesterday the Commerce Department reported that new housing units were started last month at an annual rate of a little more than 1.8 million, among the highest monthly levels in history. To a significant degree, the housing boom has been the result of extremely low home mortgage interest rates, which have made home purchases more affordable and allowed many homeowners to lower their monthly payments by refinancing existing mortgages.
Michael Middleton, who owns a Memphis insurance agency, has seen his business double in the past year selling coverage to people buying homes. He now has 25 employees and said he makes about $200,000 a year.
"Our business is booming, but I realize that's not typical. We go into people's homes who are refinancing, and they wouldn't be doing that unless they're doing well. . . . I don't live in the most expensive neighborhood in town, but it's a little bit upper middle class, and everybody seems to be doing fine," Middleton said.
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