Economic forecasts for the Candidate Countries (2001-2003) Spring 2002
25/4/2002 11:58
According to a report from the EU issued from Brussels, As a result of the worsened international economic climate, economic growth slowed down in the candidate countries at the end of 2001. Nevertheless, due to strong domestic demand, most candidate countries showed resilience and the extent of the slowdown remained limited, in line with our Autumn 2001 forecast. The weak economic development in the second half of 2001 weighs heavily on the average growth rate in the current year, despite the accelerating recovery. An expected return to normal external and domestic developments should make it possible to reach 4% average growth in 2003.
Economic developments in the candidate countries in 2001 were largely in line with our Autumn 2001 forecast. The more pronounced slowdown of economic growth in the second half of the year has reduced annual average growth to 3.1% for the ten transition candidate countries (CC-10) and to -0.1% for all 13 candidates (CC-13). The marked difference between these two aggregate growth rates is due to Turkey, which recorded a real GDP contraction of 7.4%.
In 2001, the highest growth rates were recorded in the Baltic countries, based on strong domestic demand and favourable economic developments in Russia. As an initially moderate recovery is expected in the EU, economic growth should not accelerate sharply in the transition candidate countries in 2002. Weaker growth at the end of 2001 weighs heavily on the average growth rate in 2002, which is even expected to be somewhat lower than in 2001 (2.9% compared to 3.1%). In 2003, the recovery in the EU should have gained strength, supporting growth in the candidate countries, which is expected to accelerate to around 4%. Growth rates are expected to converge more across countries, as domestic factors which currently have a negative effect on growth are assumed to converge gradually, while the external environment improves.
The overall positive trend is expected to spread over the forecasting period, leading to moderate employment growth and a small reduction of the average unemployment rate in 2003. Unemployment rates are likely to continue to show a very wide variation, ranging from 3.9% in Cyprus to 19.6% in Poland in 2003.
Economic developments in the candidate countries in 2001 were largely in line with our Autumn 2001 forecast. The more pronounced slowdown of economic growth in the second half of the year has reduced annual average growth to 3.1% for the ten transition candidate countries (CC-10) and to -0.1% for all 13 candidates (CC-13). The marked difference between these two aggregate growth rates is due to Turkey, which recorded a real GDP contraction of 7.4%.
In 2001, the highest growth rates were recorded in the Baltic countries, based on strong domestic demand and favourable economic developments in Russia. As an initially moderate recovery is expected in the EU, economic growth should not accelerate sharply in the transition candidate countries in 2002. Weaker growth at the end of 2001 weighs heavily on the average growth rate in 2002, which is even expected to be somewhat lower than in 2001 (2.9% compared to 3.1%). In 2003, the recovery in the EU should have gained strength, supporting growth in the candidate countries, which is expected to accelerate to around 4%. Growth rates are expected to converge more across countries, as domestic factors which currently have a negative effect on growth are assumed to converge gradually, while the external environment improves.
The overall positive trend is expected to spread over the forecasting period, leading to moderate employment growth and a small reduction of the average unemployment rate in 2003. Unemployment rates are likely to continue to show a very wide variation, ranging from 3.9% in Cyprus to 19.6% in Poland in 2003.
3287.99
1275.09
