China's Economy Grew 9.9 Percent in Fourth Quarter
China's Economy Grew 9.9 Percent in Fourth Quarter
20/1/2004 13:04
China's economy grew 9.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year ago as companies such as Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and Motorola Inc. expanded to meet surging consumer demand and export orders.

The world's sixth-largest economy accelerated from a revised 9.6 percent rate in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing. Gross domestic product for 2003 rose 9.1 percent, the fastest in six years, to 11.7 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion).

China helped drive a global recovery last year, consuming 55 percent of the world's cement production and 36 percent of its steel, the bureau said. The government forecast slower growth this year and said it has no plans to rein in money supply or allow its currency to strengthen, spurning calls to end a link to the dollar the U.S. says unfairly boosts China's exports.

``China's economy is still in the early stage of an expansionary cycle,'' said Goldman Sachs Inc. economist Hong Liang, who predicts 9.5 percent growth this year. ``We don't see overheating. The underlying growth momentum is strong and government policy isn't going to kill it.''

Li Deshui, a director of the statistics bureau, told reporters in Beijing, the economy will probably slow to growth of more than 7 percent this year. Chinese exports, which grew 51 percent in December, will slow this quarter after the government cut export-related tax rebates at the start of this year, he said.

Monetary Policy, Yuan

Consumer spending will probably pick up this quarter, helping prevent gluts of cars, fridges and mobile phones as new factories open, he said. The government won't tighten monetary policy or relax the yuan's peg to curb money-supply growth and investment, he said.

``There is no need yet to slam on the brakes,'' Li told reporters at a briefing in Beijing. ``Anyone who tries to speculate on yuan appreciation will be burnt.''

Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rose after today's figures were released, led by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's biggest oil refiner. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which measures shares of 32 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, climbed 3.6 percent to 4905.81.

``We'll keep on investing in China to benefit from the strong growth,'' said Gene Quon, a director at Motorola's telecom unit in Beijing. ``China's telecom sector grew three times as fast as GDP last year, and we expect the same growth this year.''

Investment

For these latest economic growth figures, China used a new system of measuring economic activity that takes greater account of the construction industry, black market and other areas after economists cast doubt on the accuracy of the previous method. The economy was previously reported to have expanded 9.1 percent in the third quarter and 8 percent in 2002.

China's M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew faster than the central bank's targeted 18 percent growth rate every month last year. Fixed-asset investment, which accounts for almost half of the economy, rose 27 percent last year and will grow at a similar pace in 2004, Li said.

China's industrial production rose a record 18 percent in December, which, adjusting for new year holidays in January and February, was the fastest since records began in 1995. Retail sales grew 11 percent, their biggest gain in 2 1/2 years.

China Petroleum gained 20 cents, or 6.2 percent, to HK$3.45. PetroChina, the country's largest oil producer, advanced 1.9 percent to HK$3.975.

Stocks Rise

China Mobile, the world's biggest mobile-phone company by users, gained HK$1.25, or 4.8 percent, to HK$27.40. The company said today it added subscribers last month at its fastest pace in 2003, opening 2.3 million new accounts.

China's economic growth gathered pace last year even as the region's severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak cooled consumer spending, tourism and trade in the second and third quarters. Electricity blackouts also failed to curb expansion.

``We had a successful 2003 and sold a record 597,000 cars after overcoming SARS, heat and capacity and power shortages,'' said Xiao Guopu, vice president at Shanghai Automotive, China's No. 2 vehicle maker. The company, which makes cars in partnership with General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG., predicts sales will rise about a quarter this year.

Motorola said it would boost cell-phone production in China by a third to 40 million units last year, of which as much as half were destined for export. Motorola posted sales of $5.7 billion in China in 2002 and had invested $3.4 billion in the country by the start of last year.

Jobs, Incomes

Surging investment and production helped create 8.5 million new jobs in China last year, Li said. That's helping boost incomes in the world's most-populous nation.

The average disposable income last year rose 9.3 percent to 8,500 yuan in cities and 4.3 percent to 2,622 yuan in agricultural areas. That appears to continue the growing disparity between farm and city incomes in China, a concern expressed by Chinese leaders in the past.

The nation's official urban jobless rate rose to 4.3 percent at the end of the year from 4.2 percent at end-September. That's the highest it's been since 1980.

To address power blackouts that crippled some industries last summer, China will add 30 million kilowatts of generating capacity this year, the government said. That's the same amount as it added in 2003.

Related news

NEWSLETTER