The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index1 (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year decrease of 0.9% in February 2023, following the year-over-year decreases of 3.1% in January, and 3.7% in December 2022, according to recent and revised data.

According to the Economic Research Centre of the University of Cyprus, the trend reversal of the CCLEI’s downward trajectory is strengthening in February 2023.

“The improved but imperceptibly negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in February 2023 confirms the economic forecasts for 2023, which predict a significant slowdown of the Cypriot economy compared to 2022, but without entering a recession as shown”, says the report.

This strengthening is attributed to the improved development of most of the Index’s domestic and international components in February. More specifically, the international Brent Crude oil price contributed to this improvement, which, after the unprecedented decline in its year-over-year growth rate in January, continued to record a decline in February 2023.

Moreover, noteworthy is the contribution of tourist arrivals since February 2023 was a record month for tourist arrivals compared to the corresponding February of the previous years. At the same time, the acceleration recorded in the growth rate of the remaining domestic components of the CCLEI further reinforces the improved path of the Index. On the contrary, the Economic Sentiment Indicators in the euro area and in Cyprus continue to restrain the upward trend of the Index.