The increasingly hopeful economic story of 2024 so far is that of a world headed for a soft landing. Unfortunately that same world is also becoming more dangerous, divided, indebted and unequal.

The reasons for short-term optimism are plain. A resilient US economy has defied expectations that the Federal Reserve’s barrage of interest-rate hikes would induce a recession. The UK—which dipped into a downturn at the end of last year—is already growing again, and Germany’s industrial sector is showing signs of a turnaround. Even in debt-hobbled China, domestic tourists spent more per trip over the Lunar New Year holiday than in 2019 for the first time since the pandemic, and the nation’s factories are humming a little more loudly.

Source: Bloomberg