CCLEI records positive YoY growth rate in March 2023

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a positive year-over-year growth rate in March 2023, according to the Economics Research Centre (ERC) of the University of Cyprus. The CCLEI recorded a year-over-year increase of 1.4% in March 2023, reversing the negative overview, following the year-over-year decreases of 0.5% and 2.9% recorded in February and January, respectively.

“The positive year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in March 2023 reinforces the economic forecasts for 2023 according to which the Cypriot economy will not enter a recession and will record a growth rate significantly higher than the average growth rate of the Eurozone, despite the remaining international economic and geopolitical uncertainty”, the ERC notes.

The ERC explains that the leading variables include the Brent Crude oil price, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus and the euro area, the total number of property sales contracts, the tourist arrivals, the value of credit card transactions, the retail trade sales turnover volume index, and the volume index of electricity production.

More specifically, the ERC notes that the international price of Brent Crude contributed to the rise of the CCLEI, whose year-over-year growth rate for the third consecutive month was negative. Also, tourist arrivals to the island seem to be significant with the passenger arrivals in March 2023 approaching the March 2019 passenger arrivals.  Moreover, the acceleration recorded in the growth rate of the remaining domestic components further strengthens the increase of the CCLEI.

The ERC concludes that, while the Economic Sentiment Indictor (ESI) in Cyprus strengthened in March 2023 compared to March 2022, the ESI in the euro area decreased reflecting the remaining international economic and geopolitical uncertainty and restraining the upward trend of the CCLEI.